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Whether there will be a global recession within a year or two and what its impact on Sri Lanka may be, are debated among the cognoscenti. On the first question there is little agreement among economists, Central Bankers and investors the world over. If there is a global recession the nature of its impact on Sri Lanka however is better understood. What there is universal agreement about is that inflation is rising the world over and in this country the rate will be high for two more years – in August 2022 it was 106% year on year, seventh highest in the world. In most countries shown on Hanke’s Inflation Dashboard reproduced above inflation is on the rise for the same reason as Sri Lanka. For decades consumption outpaced production and the shortfall was made up by foreign and debt and domestic deficit. Then one day fate caught up and debts fell due. The collapse was sudden and painful; Covid aggravated the pain but was not the root.
In some cases, the reasons are special. Cuba’s financial patron collapsed; Ukraine is caught up in a war; in Zimbabwe it was corruption and mismanagement on an incredible scale; Venezuela, Argentina and Turkey are examples of economic mismanagement on a lesser scale and Burma is a pariah military dictatorship which all the world except China shuns. Inflation is rising across Europe for more complex reasons to do with unexpected energy shortfalls (especially Germany), monetary and tax policy and industrial decline (UK for example) and social and/or political conflict (the Baltic states, Sudan, Hungary, Czechia – that is former Bohemia – Bulgaria and Poland).
The USA is an interesting special case. The Biden Administration has for reasons to do with domestic politics and to retain the country’s position as a premier global power, pumped a huge amount of money into the economy as employment and consumption support though inflation reached 9% (headline) 6% (core) leaving the FED’s much proclaimed 2% target in tatters. Salespersons, pre-school teachers, tellers and counter staff are in severe short supply because it’s better to work less hours and collect part-employment benefits than to work full time. Right now, there are two vacancies for one every unemployed person.
There is a genuine fear among economists that dreaded stagflation (simultaneous stagnation and high inflation) may be difficult to avoid in the coming years. The last time this occurred in the late 1970s the Regan-Paulson assault on US living standards sparked global neo-liberalism and, in the UK Mrs Thatcher, responded with a ruthless battering of trade unions. This reactionary global trend was not pushed back till the late 1990s by mass anti-privatisation mobilisations in developing countries and progressive political trends in the West such as the rise of Barrack Obama, China’s increased economic heft and the global ideological defeat of neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism.
Inflation has come to stay in the US since it is clear that the FED will allow the core rate to stay above 7% till 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial average is falling and it will be allowed to continue to decline. In order to retain its global position, the Biden Administration is unlikely to shrink consumer demand or slow down monetary expansion. The political scene also appears to be propitious. Donald Trump is being investigated for a slew of illegal activities and it is possible he may be convicted; in which case he will not be eligible to run for the presidency in 2024. That’s a big headache out of the way for Biden. Taking everything into account including even disrupted global supply chains, and assuming that the US economy will set the trend for the world, it seems unlikely that there will be a global economic recession within say two years.
Is Ranil fit to be Head of State?
Frankly the answer has to be in the negative; he has not been above the ugly. The link between his name and the Batalanda torture chambers is a black mark he cannot live down; the minorities will never forgive his participation in JR’s overtly racist government; the same goes for Ranasinghe Premadasa. Without denying that the JVP committed political suicide, these two men lorded it over a string of torture sites that mushroomed across the country in the 1989-93 period. As if this isn’t bad enough, the moment he took over the reins Ranil Wickremesinghe sent his khakied thugs and military goons early in the morning to beat up aragalaya protestors who were still asleep. This man does not stand above petty politics and for that reason is unfit to be Head of State or to replicate the role of QEII, William Gopallawa or Droupadi Murmu. This underlines the importance of finding a suitable Head of State.
The passing of Lilibet (Elizabeth) provides an occasion to reflect on two matters. The Monarch must be (must appear to be) above the grime of day to day politics; that is to say the roles of a Head of State and a Head of Government must be, or at least must appear to be distinct. This allows the Head of State to create public confidence in the institution of state (as opposed to the cut and thrust of politics). The second matter that Lilibet’s reign highlights is the transition from Empire to Commonwealth of Nations which the good lady and her close advisors managed with consummate skill.
There are 54 members of the Commonwealth, four more than at the end of WW2 with a population of 2.4 billion. Only two have left, Ireland in 1949 (unavoidable) and Zimbabwe in 2003 (good riddance!). The most recent four to join – Mozambique (former Portuguese colony), Rwanda, Gabon and Togo (three ex-French territories) – have no historical ties to the Empire. The frustrated sun must have hoped that at last it will have a chance to set on the blithering Empire. No such luck! Work it out, from the Pacific coast of Canada, to the South Sea Islands, NZ, Australia, the Malay Archipelago, then the huge Sub-Continent, Seychelles, Bahrain, East, Central and West Africa and the Caribbean. The odds against the sun setting on Commonwealth are getting longer by the day! Credit goes to Lilibet; Charlie-Boy may not keep it up though he is the beneficiary of “Darling Mama’s” 70-year stewardship.
Does this remark about the Commonwealth have relevance for Sri Lanka; indeed, it does. Membership of the club provides an opportunity for contact and succour from the countries of the Subcontinent, the UK, Malaysia and Australia. The opportunity to participate in gatherings brings significant benefits. Sri Lanka’s Head of State must fit the role uncontroversially.
What’s for Lanka if a global recession is unlikely?
As I have pointed out in this column previously it seems that capitalism will remain stable globally in the short-term; no one in his right mind will venture to make medium or long-term predictions in an unstable world. Given RW’s awkwardness as a prospective Head of State it is possible to kill two birds with one stone. A new constitution will have to be enacted within say a year and obviously the new president will be selected by the constituent assembly or the first parliament. There are a few suitable candidates I can think of, probably there are many more. No names at this stage please! Parliamentary elections will need to be held within say a year and it this time the front runners appear to be a Ranil+ alliance or the JVP. By Ranil+ I mean Ranil-Sajith, or some combination of SJB people with brains (there are a few) with a UNP contingent. The rump of the SLPP, the Dullas clique, the 10-party comedy and the SLFP will be wiped out. Whoever secures a legitimate and constitutional electoral mandate let him/her be PM, be it Sajith, Namal, Ranil, Anura Kumara, Tom, Dick or Harry. If we seek democracy this right is unquestionable.
If capitalism survives globally for say five plus more years (which is the same as saying a global recession is avoided for now) our country’s economy will need to navigate new waters. Few will wager anything in these parlous times except perhaps that WW3 is unlikely. If capitalism is the global option then to my mind the JVP is the natural parliamentary opposition. This is reminiscent of the reds in the Legislative Council and Parliament in the 1930s and 1950-60s. Most of the 1940s they were locked up or in exile. I have spoken of global uncertainties, so will capitalism be shaken globally to its foundations within a decade? Wow, the topic is way beyond the reach of this essay.
Unofficial Secret: Has the President reached the end of his tether?
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By Andrew Sheng Asia News Netowrk
Is Hong Kong a lost city or being re-born after its baptism of fire? Hong Kong was always a “borrowed place, borrowed time”, to quote the legendary journalist Richard Hughes (1906-1984), immortalised in John Le Carre’s novels on the intersection of media and espionage in cities like Berlin or Istanbul located at the borderlands of great power conflicts. Having returned the city on 1 July 1997, can Britain hold China to the terms and conditions of the 1984 Joint Declaration with China?
Chinese University of Hong Kong Law Professor CL Lim’s book, ” The Sino-British Joint Declaration” is a meticulously researched legal history of how the Joint Declaration came into being and whether it still has the force of law on both parties. There is a presumption that the Joint Declaration granted democratic rights to Hong Kong. The legal story is much more complex. This book draws on the British National Archives and study of the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1990), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966) [ICCPR], United Nations Charter, etc., to lay out the facts and opinions for the reader to judge who is right or wrong.
Cities and states are defined by their Constitutions, communal values, geography, cultures and histories. Prior to 1841, Hong Kong was a barren rock that was indisputably part of China. Hong was ceded under the Treaty of Nanjing after the First Opium War (1839-42); but the expiry of the 99 year New Territories lease meant that Britain could not hold onto Hong Kong after 1997. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), following earlier Chinese governments, has never recognised any “unequal treaty” with the Western Powers, but adopted the face-saving principle that “a sovereign may delegate under international law such control or authority to another for a limited period.” Once that sovereignty is resumed, the PRC will not brook any interference in its internal sovereign matters.
This book reads like a series of Queen’s Counsel briefs, densely argued on complex and subtle points presenting different opinions and perspectives. In normal legal disputes, the arbiter would be an independent court, but there is no final decision between China and United Kingdom, which are the five members of the UN Security Council that can veto any rulings at the United Nations level. The only appeal left is to the court of global public opinion, which is today dominated by the English-speaking media. As media today becomes more and more ideologically driven, it is unlikely that deeply held views will be changed by legal or rational arguments.
The genesis of the Joint Declaration was the need to ensure a smooth return of Hong Kong to China. In 1983, when the New Territories lease (covering 92% of Hong Kong) was running out, Britain initially sought to renew the lease, but found that China under Deng Xiaoping was adamant that China would resume sovereignty over Hong Kong. With confidence slipping, the Hong Kong currency was under attack, only to be restored by a peg against the US dollar. This gave impetus to settle the terms and conditions of return. As the book painstakingly pointed out, British negotiators were operating from a weak hand, wanting to retain as much influence and economic benefits as possible post-1997.
As described in Chapter 3, democracy under colonialism was never part of the negotiations. Hong Kong representatives played no part in the discussions between two sovereign powers. The Joint Declaration itself did not mention the word “democracy”. It basically stated that the Hong Kong SAR “will enjoy a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign and defence affairs” (Article 2) and that rights and freedoms will be ensured by Hong Kong SAR law (Article 5). Since the Basic Law, HKSAR’s constitution, is PRC law, the final interpretation falls to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, not necessarily by the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeals.
The real point of dispute lies in the National Security Law, which was passed by the National People’s Congress in 2020, after the Hong Kong legislature was unable to enact Article 23 of the Basic Law. As public disorder arose with violent protests, the practical issue was whether HKSAR government could handle them without a National Security Law. Hong Kong was uniquely handicapped because in every other international financial centre, there exists very draconian national security laws that protect the integrity and security of the financial system, economy and sovereignty. Hong Kong was deeply polarised. No compromise seemed possible, and continued protests and violence would have destroyed Hong Kong. Between a rock and a hard place, the National Security Law was the least painful alternative barring more physical violence.
Treaty on a Lost Place highlighted the absurd situation of two sovereigns signing one piece of paper having different points of view. Such constructive ambiguity papered over destructive alternatives. The last British Governor Chris Patten was successful in persuading some Hongkongers that one man-one vote was what they deserve. Whether that is a cure all for Hong Kong’s ill is another matter. That his Conservative Party leadership was elected opaquely by of British people shows that different systems may not always practice what they preach. Hong Kong elites failed to correct the injustices that many young faced in not providing them affordable homes with meaningful, well paid jobs. Beijing’s mistake perhaps was to trust that Hong Kong could on her own resolve these contradictions within the larger struggle between China and the West on many fronts.
A Treaty is only a piece of paper. A city is not lost to Britain or China, but lost in its own direction, which must be re-found. The answers will not be found in international law, because that is itself being rediscovered in a new age of multipolar contestation. This book is a major contribution to our understanding of how international law is only one of many guides to the future. Hong Kong has to rediscover her own identity inside a larger identity. That is the tragedy and opportunity facing all islands within the grand ocean of mankind.
High Energy costs and the prevailing Ukrainian War have led to a huge increase in fertilizer prices, and farmers, especially in the developing countries, find it extremely difficult to provide the required fertiliser to crops. Natural gas prices account for 80% of the variable costs of the production of urea, the most widely used chemical fertiliser. Increased energy prices have been the main cause for increased prices of all key fertilisers as shown in the Table 1.
The Haber Bosch process of conversion of atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen is the main method of production of ammonia and consequently urea. The process has been optimised over the last century bringing down the energy consumption by 75%. A new type of ruthenium catalyst is reported to reduce the power consumption of ammonia production. Further an electrochemical Haber-Bosch process, yet under research (Fig.1) is reported to produce ammonia with far less energy and carbon dioxide consumption. The Siemen’s Green Ammonia Plant (Fig. 2), also still at a testing stage, uses wind power to convert hydrogen and nitrogen to ammonia. Apart from its huge energy consumption of 1-2% of the global energy, the carbon dioxide released in the Haber Bosch process amounting to 420 million tons annually or 1.4 % of the global carbon dioxide production is a key contributor to global warming. . Hopefully the new technologies should bring down the cost of production in the foreseeable future and also help mitigate global warming.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the key global fertiliser suppliers, and Russia was the world’s largest exporter of urea fertilizer and the second largest exporter of potash (K) and phosphorus (P) fertilizer before the Ukrainian war . Fertiliser prices shot up 60% with the war, and China tightened its control on fertiliser exports, primarily nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers, effectively shutting off supplies to the global market, and contributing to the surge in prices.
Need for Judicious Fertilizer Use
More than 50% of the N fertilisers is wasted globally . Research reveals that 60-70% of the soil applied fertilisers are lost due to erosion, run off and vaporisation. In our country the losses are probably highest from tea plantations because of the sloping lands. Ironically because chemical fertilisers were relatively cheap and comprised a small fraction of the total cost of production, there was little concern about wastage. For example, a decade ago subsidised paddy fertiliser was only about 2.5% of the cost of production and the cost of application was3%! Given the current exorbitant cost of fertilisers it is critically important to minimise the waste. In other words fertiliser should be applied judiciously. At the Major Economic Forum on Energy and Climate Change(MEF),the US President has announced a ‘Global Fertiliser Challenge’ to raise USD 100 million towards increasing fertiliser use efficiency.
‘Little and often’ is an oft-uttered phrase in judicious fertiliser use. All it means is increase the frequency of application and correspondingly decrease the quantity per application. This should be one fundamental approach now taking into account the relative cost of application and that of the fertiliser. Appropriate placement of fertiliser and forking it into the soil should conserve it substantially. The International Fertiliser Development Corporation (IFDC) pioneered the development of the urea deep placement technology in several countries in Asia and Africa. It involved the application of 1-3 grams of urea briquettes seven centimetres deep below the soil surface, decreasing the urea use by 30% while increasing yields by 15% in rice. Notably, emissions of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas 40 times more potent than carbon dioxide, were decreased 60—80% through this technology. In Bangladesh, reports reveal that this technology helped more than 2.5 million farmers, and their earnings increased by $220 per hectare per season, and saving the government $30 million per year on fertilizer subsidy.
Records reveal that the practice of foliar application of chemical fertiliser dates back to 1844. It has been a common practice to cure specific nutrient deficiencies but to my knowledge it is not a regular practice for providing the total crop nutrient requirements, the usual one being soil application. Apart from being a crop scientist, the writer is also a tea smallholder with about a hectare of mature tea in plucking. With the banning of chemical fertiliser imports in 2021 and the rapid increase in fertilizer costs, I was at a loss as to how I could fertilise my tea. Being left with only a few bags of chemical fertiliser in my store from the pervious year, I decided to use it judiciously via foliar application. As already mentioned 60-70% of the fertiliser is reported to be lost via soil application. I sprayed over the last year in 10 rounds a 5% fertiliser solution comprising urea, muriate of potash and 1%zincsulphate. As the rockphosphate component in the mixture was insoluble, the solution was filtered and the insoluble rock phosphate was removed. So the mixture did not exceed 5% concentration, the usual maximum nutrient concentration recommended for foliar application. Having applied rock phosphate over the last several years, I was aware that the soil phosphorus levels should be adequate at least for an year. Further, response to phosphate fertiliser application is rarely observed in mature tea but should phosphorus be needed it could be incorporated in the foliar spray. Research reveals that triple superphosphate though soluble is not suitable for foliar application. Further, as shown in Table 2, the leaf penetration of phosphorus is very slow and hence the risk of wash off by rain is high, whereas nitrogen and potassium are quite rapid. Ideally an annual soil application of rock phosphate or a foliar application of a nutrient such as potassium phosphate in good weather appears to be the answer. In fact, potassium phosphate should be able to replace the muriate of potash in the rock phosphate in the conventional tea fertiliser mixtures in foliar fertilizer formulations. Alternatively, a soluble fertiliser such as diammonium phosphate could provide the phosphorus as well as nitrogen.
The foliar application has now proceeded for over an year in my farm and to my satisfaction, I have got a fresh leaf yield of 10,212kg (approximately 20424 kg made tea) comparable to what was obtained in the previous years.
The cost saving with foliar application is substantial being as high as 50% as seen from Table 3, some figures of which are hypothetical. The retail chemical fertiliser price has been considered as Rs 80 a kilo, the price of zinc sulphate as Rs 750 a kilo and the daily labour wage of Rs 1,000 as paid in the plantations.. Of course this is a mere observation and sustainability of the method needs investigation. Will the root systems complain when leaves take over its job? Ideally, the agricultural research institutes should research on the matter for accurate results and sustainability.
Nanofertilisers comprise fertilizers with particle sizes smaller than 100 nanometers, facilitating entry into plants far more effectively than conventional fertilisers.There are reported to increase nutrient use efficiency, reduce wastage and increase crop productivity. They are synthesised from traditional fertiliser compounds by encapsulating fertiliser particles with nanomaterial and are reported to reduce the use of conventional fertiliser by more than 50%. They are also reported to be taken up more effectively during foliar application. As far as the writer is aware the production of nanofertilisers are yet essentially at a research stage but its potential appears enormous.
However, an Indian farmer organization called IFFCO is reported to market a nanourea fertiliser containing 4% urea at a price of Indian Rs. 240 per 500ml bottle supposedly with the same efficacy as a 50-kilo bag of conventional urea but 10% cheaper! Apparently, this was the product that was imported by the government last year following the banning of chemical fertiliser imports and distributed among farmers. However, the farmers complained that the product did not work!
The political scene changes from day to day….indeed from hour to hour it seems. Here are some thoughts on subjects being discussed among people like me who have no influence in politics but have plenty to say on the bizarre events that have shown a rich vein of eccentricity running through the events of the last four months.
Our opinions are not based on heated rhetoric. Nor are they politically biased. They simply seem to be based on commonsensical (albeit amateur) conclusions by people like me who know full well our opinions are never going to be heeded……..UNLESS !!!
We are sure that Mr. Ranil,Wickremesinghe is under no illusions as to his popularity. He knows that next to the Rajapaksas he is greatly disliked at the moment (politically speaking that is.) Nothing personal is intended. He is a cultured and well read man. But he has made mistake after mistake in dealing with the aragalaya that keeps bubbling angrily in small groups because he has given the impression that he will cooperate with former crooks without a change of system. And we ALL want a system change. We still see old faces of corrupt men surrounding him and this upsets us…aragalaya and civil population alike. He has not so far brought miscreants to justice which the population desperately wants.
We ask this…..Surely Ranil has the power to get rid of the old guard and bring in new men, without character blemishes, instead of swearing in those cleared of wrongdoing by a justice system we are not totally happy with? And many who are NOT cleared.
He has the chance to act like an Enlightened Despot instead of a Potty Dictator. Let him do the right thing by the people who have spoken forcefully and he will go down as our best leader yet. So our view is that he should be given the chance to GET ON WITH THIS THANKLESS JOB and HOPE he will rise to the desperate call of Lanka.
We feel that young Minister, KANCHANA WIJESEKERA Has done a very good job in a most difficult situation. One can see he is trying hard. He speaks excellently on TV and tells the public what is happening with regard to the queues (which he has now dispelled.) He stands to be a mature politician in the making. Alas the energy crisis highlighted by the Chairman of the PUCSL.
The electricity hike is a shock and we need to be reassured that those rascally engineers comprising the so called ‘Engineer Mafia’ who are responsible for our sad plight are taking massive salary cuts and will be denied salary raises or bonuses. May we be told if this is being done? Surely the IMF will expect that sort of action? Mr.. RW must start acting and being very strict with these unpatriotic elements.
In the face of gloom and rocketing food prices I wonder if the HOUSE really understands the mood of the people. I feel they listen to sycophants around them who tell them what they want to hear, not what they SHOULD hear. Force public servants who are a drain on the country’s finances to start taking the blame. For example how can a bankrupt nation like ours have a stock of SEVENTY unused buses doing nothing for seven years?
THE ‘HOUSE’ AND CUT BACKS
Our disreputable House (except for a few notable exceptions) need to have their salaries cut, their pensions withdrawn, their powers totally curtailed, their cars taken away and their unnecessary security withdrawn forthwith. If there are death threats against them they probably deserve them. We have NEVER seen such a useless bunch of people. Their behavior in Parliament is appalling. They do not have the courtesy to even listen to each other talk. They yawn, they chat among themselves, they get up and leave the chamber, they argue over trivialities and we wonder what they are doing to justify the money spent on these (mostly) uneducated men.
They have the audacity to complain they do not have enough petrol to get to Parliament. Let them use public transport as the Ministers of Sweden are doing or let them stay at home. They do nothing for the country or the people anyway.
Sajith’s father, the late President R. Premadasa, was the best administrator this country has ever had. His work ethic was amazing. He had foresight and wisdom and his economic policies were sound and rewarding. His son has had an excellent education and has great skills as a speaker. His English is impeccable and he can probably impress anyone from the IMF, World Bank, ADB et al. But so far he seems to be playing a passive role when he should be up and about acting as a possible leader of this country. He is certainly growing into the future leader we hope for.
It says a lot for these politicians that they are recognized by their first names so easily. Eran and Harsha are two of the most trusted and admired men in Parliament at the moment. Gajendrakumar is rapidly earning a similar reputation and seems to have inherited his father, Kumar Ponnambalam’s ability. With men like this why on earth are we having to deal with the likes of Nimal Siripala and Rajitha Senaratne and others of their ilk?
This is another universally respected man who talks commonsense and knows what the country needs. We have the talent but why are the above mentioned names not given Ministries regardless of party politics and just told to get on with bringing order to chaos. Ranil will be a hero by the time he has done this and returned this country to prosperity (if only he will). He will get the credit for tapping into this well of talent who will work with wisdom and foresight and get brilliant results. Most of all….they all have integrity.
If Ranil is allowed to go outside the Parliamentary elected sluggards he will find literally dozens of capable, educated, experienced citizens who will bring this country round. Among them are many women like Savitri Gunasekara, Radhika Coomaraswamy and Tara de Mel. There are many other women of course -especially among the business community. The names that springs to mind are those of Dawn Austin and Kasturi Chelleraja Wilson. Alas I am not very familiar with the many highly gifted women who run businesses with enormous success.
Let us compare the dozen or so names I have mentioned to the 200 greedy, stupid and corrupt men who comprise our Parliament. These men are simply wallowing on the luxurious featherbed of the state. Obviously I discount that small number who are both educated and able.
Are the 200 sordid lot not ashamed of themselves! The Sri Lankans have openly and volubly shown their contempt for the present government representatives who still attend Parliament driven in expensive vehicles, behaving as if they still represent the people. Don’t they FEEL the hatred they inspire? Don’t they fear the possibility of future violence now that peaceful protests have been suspended? How long will they continue with this social irresponsibility? How long will the voters put up with the appalling corruption so shamelessly displayed and so shamelessly not yet punished.
The uprising of the people, the continuing aragalya struggle and the constant demands for justice show that the people of Sri Lanka want these men OUT. They will support ANY man who will have the power and the nerve to change the system. Ranil Wickremesinghe has the power at the moment. Will he have the nerve?
Napoleon’s military success was no doubt due to his genius but it was also due to the fact that he had the ability to choose superb generals. His Napoleonic Code was possible because of this talent he had in acquiring the best men available. Sri Lanka has many such men available. Let Ranil Wickremesinghe SOMEHOW make use of them without concerning himself unduly about points of J.R’s absurd Constitution which prevents any real system change in the name of ‘Legality’. Legality is a much touted word. What crimes are being committed daily in its name.
Lest erudite Constitution experts dismiss all this as a mirage let me remind the reader that I started by saying this is an amateur’s opinion.As an afterword….I have just read in a morning’s paper of the Sept. 8 that the English Medium is being restarted as National policy in schools. Better late than never I guess, but what an appalling waste it has been all these years watching while the country gradually sank into virtual backwardness due to a foolish language policy applied wrongly.
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